The Business End

So the Group stage is over and now it is time to get down to business. Before I gloat about the Group of Death let me start with some of the things I got wrong.

Group A … I guess Poland did not have the quality I thought they did. Kuba was excellent. His game tying goal against Russia was one of the best goals of the Group stages. Lewandowski was ok but he did not get the service that he is used to getting in Dortmund. I was totally wrong about Szczesny. He played in one game and red carded. What a disgrace

I was wrong about Italy. For much of their opening game against world champions Spain, the Italians were the better side. If not for a few Saint Iker saves, Italy could have won. Italy showed strength against the tough Croatians in another tight draw and then they got the three points they needed against the Irish. Group C was a tough and Italy showed they are still a squad to be reckoned with in the knock out rounds.

What can I brag about from the group stages …

I nailed the group of Death … The Dutch lacked sharpness. Playing Van Bommel and De Jong in the middle together was a total mistake. Neither man looked capable of making plays or creating for their team.

I knew Portugal would get it together. I thought Ronaldo was going to make a fool of me after his horrible game against the Danes. He really had a great game when it counted. He put two goals past the Dutch but he really could have had 3 or 4.

England won their group. They played boring but pragmatic football against the French for the point. They then came back from down 2 – 1 against the Swedes to win 3 – 2. Ansdy Carroll, Theo Walcott and Danny Welbeck all scored cracking goals. Then England bored us to death one last time for three points off hosts Ukraine. It wasn’t pretty but they got it done

What I loved in the group stages…

Pirlo vs Xavi … this battle in the midfield was so much fun to watch. These two maestros perfectly played a game of ,”everything you can do I can do better”.  Xavi is like the human metronome. He keeps Spain in perfect time and perfect rhythm.  Pirlo looked reborn against Spain. He reminded me a bit of Zidane in the 2006 World Cup. Zidane knew it was going to be his last major tournament so he left it all on the pitch. Watching Pirlo against Spain I got that same feeling. He ran past two defenders and slipped in a perfect ball to Di Natale for Italy’s only goal. The two guys put on such a great show, I actually saw both of them slide tackle to take the ball off of the others feet.

Pirlo also banged in the only free kick of the group stages. His curler against Croatia was a thing of beauty.

Steven Gerrard  … Man Gerrard was awesome. Any questions about who should be wearing the armband for the English are done and dusted. Gerrard is tied for the lead with 3 assists but those numbers do not tell the whole story.

No one on the planet passes like Gerrard. Sure Xavi hasn’t misplaced a pass in 10 seasons and Pirlo’s passes are so smooth they could make a panther purr. Butt Gerrard’s passes are out this world. This guy sends 40 yard BB’s like they are going out of style. He routinely sends the long pass out to the wings to start attacks or get the English out of trouble. If England get past Italy, Gerrard will likely play a huge part.

My Starting 11 of the group stages would look like this:

Keeper – Iker Casillas (Spain). He kept Spain in the game against Italy. His save against Ivan Rakitic kept Spain in the tournament. Saitn Iker lives ..

Right Back – Czech Republic fullback Theodor Gebre Selassie. This kid has opened so many eyes with his displays that Arsenal may be set to pounce.

Center Back - Mats Hummels of Germany. Hummels has been a rock in Germany’s backline. Germany only allowed 2 goals in three games in the Group of Death and Hummels was a huge reason why.  

Center Back - Bruno Alves of Portugal. When I watch Alves I am not sure if he is the dirtiest center back in this tournament or simply the toughest. This guy puts in strong challenges. His clash against Gomez in the Germany game was epic.

Left Back – Fabio Coentrao of Portugal. Coentrao is a bit of a light weight and prone to simulation but his good outweighs the bad. His flying runs down the flank are magnificent.

Midfielders – Gerrard & Pirlo … See above

2 more midfielders  -- Yohan Cabaye &David Silva. It’s no coincidence that France lost to Sweden when Cabaye was rested from the starting 11. Cabaye was excellent in France’s first two game seven scoring his first goal for Les Bleus.

In my opinion Silva has been the best player for Spain. He has three assists including the perfect ball to Cesc Fabregas in Spain’s tie against Italy. He has also scored one. France are going to have their hands full with the little guy in the next round.

Forwards – Mario Gomez &Christiano Ronaldo … Both guys have three goals. Both guys have scored big goals and both guys are in fine form heading in to the knockout rounds.

Talk to you before the finals…

YNWA

Just in time for …. Euro Cup 2012!!

Group A: Poland , Greece , Russia , Czech Republic

Most experts say this is the most wide open group of the four and that anyone can win it. I have to disagree. I look at the Polish squad, who will be playing in front of their ravenous fans, and see clear advantages. Of the 4 sides in this group Poland are the only team deploying a world class striker, Robert Lewandowski. Lewandowski was brilliant for his club side Borussia Dortmund bagging 30 goals in all competitions. 

Speaking of Dortmund , the Yellow and Blacks won the Bundesliga double pounding Munich in the German Cup final and leaving Munich in second place on their way to their second straight league title. That excellent Dortmund team contribute three starters to the Polish national team. Lewandowski is joined by captain Jakub ‘Kuba’ Blaszczkowski and full-back Lukasz Piszczek. This title winning trio should provide the co-hosts with plenty of belief. Poland also feature the second best keeper in the group with Wojciech Szczesny between the sticks. Poland lack a strong defensive front so Szczesny will have to be at his best. I think he can do it. Szczesny was excellent at Arsenal this season.

Miscellaneous: Watch out for Greece . They will park the bus in every game and try to win 0 – 0. Perhaps they think three draws in enough to get to the second round? Andre Arshavin will be out to prove himself again like he did in 2008. Only this time he will not be coming back to England . After a decent start he really flamed out at Arsenal

Predictions: Poland come out on top of this group with the Russians scrapping out a second place finish.

Group B: Netherlands , Denmark , Germany , Portugal .

Holy Crap! Group of death?!?!?! Try group of massacre, carnage and total destruction. If the Danes were in any other group I could see them progressing to the second round. Unfortunately they will be beaten down by three giants in international soccer.

The Dutch I think will not be as good as expected. Arjen Robben is suffering from a massive Champions League hangover. I don’t expect to see the same Robben as we saw at the 2010 World Cup. Playing Mark Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong in the midfield will be a tactical error. The Dutch coach Bert Van Marwijk may think he needs to play two holding midfielders against three strong offenses but this will limit his squads creativity. The big question mark of this squad is the back 4. Will they be able to keep out Christiano Ronaldo and Mario Gomez? I don’t think so.

Germany will be an absolute machine this Euro Cup. On paper they have the strongest starting 11 in this cup. World Class strikers … Check. Mario Gomez and Thomas Mueller can bang em in. Strong midfield … Check, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Mesut Ozil are world Class… Evergreen Defenders …. Check, Mats Hummels, Badstuber and Boateng are all rock solid. World Class Keeper … Check, Manuel Neuer is excellent.

Portugal are in a good position. They are bit under the radar with Germany and Holland grabbing most of the headlines in this group. Their superstar Christiano Ronaldo is playing the best football of his career. He and his fellow Madradistas will be flying high from knocking Barcelona off their perch this past season. I expect Ronaldo to come out flying this cup and really make his first international mark.

Predictions: Germany is simply awesome. They will win this group. Portugal will surprise the pundits and take second. I just think the Dutch are lacking mental strength and their back four will be under siege.

Group C: Spain , Italy , Ireland , Croatia

Spain are clearly the class on group C but I think they are lacking in one area. With David Villa out after not recovering from knee surgery they lack the killer striker they have had the last two major tournaments. They will be relying on Fernando Torres and Fernando Llorente. I like Llorente but Spanish coach Vicente Del Bosque is going to go with Torres. In the last few warm up friendlies Torres looked like the weak link up front. Silva, Xavi, Iniesta, Navas and Alonso were at their ‘Tiki Taka’ best. But they lack a true predator up front.

Italy are unrecognizable to me going into this tournament. I know they Buffon and Pirlo but they have got be a combined 1000 years old at this point. They are great but will they have the juice to get this team out of the group stages? Where are the superstars (No Totti and no Cannavarro)? Who is going to score for this team? Who is going to provide the creative spark? How about crazy ass Mario Balotelli… To me, he is the wild card of this tournament. If he can keep his head and manage to score some goals Italy have a glimmer of hope to get out of the group stages.

I am happy for Ireland getting into this tournament. The Boys were robbed of a world cup so qualifying for the Euro Cup is awesome. Much like Italy, Ireland are relying on some old-reliables. All time leader in caps Shay Given will be in goal. All time leader in goals Robbie Kean will play up front. The human ‘Own Goal’ Richard Dunne will play central defense.  Keep an eye out for Shane Long. EPL fans will recognize him. The Boys should be positive and feel that they have as good as chance as Croatia or Italy in making the knock out stages. Somewhere the Walsh Family is smiling…

Croatia is a definite dark horse in this tournament. If Luka Modric can find the form that launched Tottenham into the Champions League two seasons ago Croatia could make some noise. It’s no surprise that Tottenham’s loss of form this year coincided with Mordic’s loss of form.  Croatia have counter attacking players with Ivan Rakitic and Darijo Srna. They have Everton striker Nikica Jelavic up front with Ivica Olic. Croatia have stability with head coach Slaven Bilic.

Game to watch: Ireland vs. Croatia. Italy will park the bus against Spain and play for a 0 – 0  draw. Classic Italian defensive crap. The winner of the Ireland v Croatia game could take an early lead in the group and set themselves up for the second round.

Predictions: Spain win the group. Italy implode under more match fixing scandals. Or Mario Balotelli goes crazy and Red Cards himself out of the tournament. Croatia has slightly more depth and play makers then Ireland and The Blazers make it to the second round. Somewhere the Walsh family is balling their fists.

Group D: England, France, Sweden, Ukraine

Ukraine … Next

Sweden … Ibrahimovich does not a team make. Watch out for Rasmus Elm. The kid from AZ Alkmaar can flat out play.

France is looking really good right now. They almost have it all. They have a deadly striker up front in Karim Benzema. They have dynamic wingers with Samir Nasri and Frank Ribery. Ribery in particular is really finding his form. In the friendlies leading up to the tournament he has been awesome. The French men in the middle, Yohan Cabaye and Yann M'Vila can deliver the tough tackle and thread the needle pass. Viera would be proud. Les Bleus also have a strong bench with Hatem Ben Arfa and League 1 leading scorer Olivier Giroud. The one guy that bothers me in the starting 11 is AC Milan defender Philippe Mexes. This dude is so error prone. Other than Mexes France is strong

England is… well … England. Once again they are a mess heading into a major tournament. Rooney is suspended for the first two games against France and Sweden. They are missing Frank Lampard, Gareth Barry and Tim Cahill all due to injury. England has 6 players in the squad from a team that finished in eight place. That’s right. Somehow Stewart Downing, Martin Kelly, Jordan Henderson and Andy Carroll made the squad. In Carroll’s defense he was showing fine form towards the end of the season and has played well in the tune up games. Hodgson has given Carroll the #9 so it appears he will be the striker while Rooney is out. With all this crap going on with this squad (I forgot to mention the drama surrounding John Terry), I like this squad. I like Gerrard, Joe hart, Ashley Young and Andy Carroll. I like Danny Welbeck and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.

Predictions:  Steven Gerrard spreads the ball to Young and Walcott on the wings. Carroll gives Mexes hell and England defeat France and win the group

Final Predictions

Looking at the squads Spain, Germany and France are the teams to beat. But can Spain win three major tournaments in a row? Something is telling me they can’t. Perhaps it the fact that they don’t have David Villa and the Madrid and Barca players have played about 1,000,000 soccer games since 2008. I think Spain will run out of gas and lose to France in the quarter finals. I think France will stay hot and beat Portugal to make it to the finals

On the other side of the bracket I like England to beat Croatia and Germany to beat Russia. I think England will run out of gas against the deep and powerful Germans.

In the final I am taking France over Germany. I really like the makeup of the French side. The have play makers, ball winners and goal scorers. I am picking  France to win their first major trophy since the 2000 Euro Cup.

Of course my dream final is England beating the Dutch. That would be Epic!